Battle for the Beer Barrel
Who? #19 Kentucky Wildcats (5–2, 2–2) vs. #3 Tennessee Volunteers (6–0, 3–0)
Where? Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
When? 7:00 PM ET, October 29, 2022
Series — Tennessee leads 82–26–9; Tennessee won in Lexington last year 45–42; Kentucky last won in 2020 in Knoxville 34–7.
Spread — Tennessee -12.5 (Caesar’s), Tennessee 82.9% chance to win (FPI)
We’re almost through October, and it’s looking like Tennessee can get through the month undefeated. The last time that was the case? 1998. The Volunteers are high atop the SEC and the college football world, coming off an upset over Alabama two weeks ago and setting up a major battle for the SEC East. Before that trip to Athens however, they’ll need to avoid looking ahead and deal with border-rival Kentucky.
Keys to the Game
Tennessee is coming into this game as 12.5 point favorites. It’s a little low of a line to some, but mostly because of schedule dynamics. Kentucky will be coming off a bye week, while Tennessee could be caught looking ahead to the titanic matchup against top-ranked Georgia next week. It’s a good spot for the Wildcats to make it competitive, but what do they need to spring an upset?
Two-Dimensional
Firstly, Kentucky will need to pass and run the ball effectively. The Wildcats have only played two games with both quarterback Will Levis and running back Chris Rodriquez starting. They’re 1–1 in those games; a 22–19 loss at Ole Miss and a 27–17 win against Mississippi State at home. Also in those games, UK averaged 9.4 yards/pass and 3.95 yards/rush.
The Kentucky passing attack has been consistently good when Levis has been in. Their struggle this season has been the running game, but that’s mostly because of Rodriquez’s 4-week suspension at the beginning of the year. Since his return, the team’s week-by-week rushing game has steadily increased:
2.9 yards/carry at Ole Miss (#59 rushing defense)
3.4 yards/carry vs South Carolina (#88 rushing defense)
5.0 yards/carry vs Miss State (#76 rushing defense)
Levis will be able to make some plays against this Tennessee secondary, but it will take a lot more than that to keep pace. They’ll also be facing a Vols’ rush defense that is holding Power 5 opponents to 3 yards/carry, which is 7th in the nation. That’s also after facing an Alabama rushing attack spearheaded by Jahmyr Gibbs.
Kentucky needs Rodriguez to have the kind of game he had against Mississippi State two weeks ago. It will be a massive feat against this defense, but the Wildcats need to be able to force Tennessee to respect both the air and ground game, as well as control tempo and possessions against the Vols’ offense.
Possession Control
The biggest stat line of last year’s game was the difference in time of possession. Kentucky held onto the ball for a whopping 99 plays and 46 minutes of play. They had a total of 612 yards and 35 first downs. They actually outclassed the Vols in most cases, except for one key stat: yards/play. While Kentucky racked up 612 total yards, they only had 6.2 yards/play. Meanwhile, the Vols gained just 461 yards, but they only ran 47 plays for an average of 9.8 yards/play.
Mark Stoops’ gameplan for possession control last season actually nearly worked. They came to within 3 points while being outgained about an entire 4 yards/play. The keys to that were success on third downs and in the redzone. Last year they were 12–17 on third down and 5–5 in the redzone with 5 touchdowns. This Saturday the Wildcats will be facing a Tennessee defense that is 33rd in the country on third down and 14th in the redzone. They are allowing only 34% of third downs and 73% in the redzone.
Trying to capitalize on getting more plays and opportunities than Tennessee could still work, but Kentucky is going to be facing a lot of challenges from the start. They will need to get that ground game to a sustainable level to be able to start thinking about controlling possession. And even if they can do that, they’ll still be playing into the strengths of this year’s Vols’ squad when trying to sustain drives and actually score, which is the most important part of the game.
Crowd/Momentum Control
In Kentucky’s position, there’s really no margin for error. They’ll need to be perfect and score on almost every drive. That sort of problem is compounded when you have a crowd like you’ll have in Knoxville. Two Saturdays ago saw perhaps the loudest and rowdiest crowd ever in Neyland.
This Saturday won’t match that hype, but it’ll still be louder than these Kentucky players have ever heard it. It has a real effect on players. But also, it’s a reflection of how momentum is going in the game. If Kentucky wants a shot in this game, they cannot let Tennessee seize early momentum and build a big lead. They don’t have the weapons to catch up that Alabama was able to use to claw their way back (before losing anyway).
If they can avoid that, then they’ll still be walking a tightrope trying to avoid any turnovers or costly penalties. The Vols have an offense that scores on nearly every single drive, so even a single drive ending in a mistake could cost the momentum and the game. But needing a team to be able to play perfect ball is not usually a good recipe for an upset.
Staff Picks
The Model — Tennessee 37, Kentucky 30
Ben Ashworth — Tennessee 40, Kentucky 27
Travis Hamilton — Tennessee 52, Kentucky 28
James Hines — Tennessee 45, Kentucky 21
Brian Johnson — Tennessee
Jack Pierce, Jr. — Tennessee 41, Kentucky 35
Dylan Vogel — Tennessee 41, Kentucky 31
Written by Dylan Vogel, Director of Writing at VSPN
