Tennessee vs Florida
Who? Florida Gators (1–1) vs. #11 Tennessee Volunteers (2–0)
Where? Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL (watch on ESPN)
When? 7:00 PM ET, September 16, 2023
Series — Florida leads 31–21 after Tennessee broke a 5-year losing streak last season. Tennessee hasn’t won in The Swamp since 2003, but this will be the first game at Florida since 1971 with the Vols ranked and the Gators unranked.
Spread — Tennessee -6.5 (Caesar’s), Tennessee 54.1% chance to win (FPI)
This game is always stressful for Tennessee fans, but it felt like it got a heck of a lot more so after a lackluster Week 2 performance.
Austin Peay came into Knoxville and kept the Vols fighting for the entire game. With a road trip to Gainesville coming up, it’s obvious there needs to be a much better showing, especially offensively. The team is well-aware of this too, even calling an all-players meeting this past Sunday.
Florida is a team that’s had Tennessee’s number for a long time. The Vols have only won 2 of the last 18 matchups, and haven’t won in the Swamp in 20 years. There have been plenty of times over the years where the Vols should have pulled out a win, but lost in heartbreaking fashion; or where a superior Tennessee team just didn’t show up and execute how they should have.
So what will this year’s game hold?
Offensive Explosion…or Struggle?
Tennessee’s offense just hasn’t looked right through two weeks of play. Milton, despite seemingly fixing his issues with touch, has been inaccurate on intermediate throws. Receivers have dropped easy passes. Timing and chemistry has been off. Only two plays have gone for 20+ yards. Playcalling in general has looked pretty vanilla.
Is this a case where Heupel is keeping his cards close to the vest in preparation for bigger games? Maybe. That could be a best case scenario. If that’s the case, and Tennessee does come out hot through the air, it’ll go a long way in quieting that Florida crowd down. It’ll force the Gators into a track meet, which is not the kind of game they want to play. But what about worst case?
Only a handful of times has Heupel’s offense failed to pass for 7 yards/attempt. Two of those times have been the last two games. And Heupel hasn’t exactly shied away from opening the playbook for lesser squads — the 2022 Akron game saw the Vols rack up 17.5 yards/attempt, the highest he’s had here.
So worst case to me is that what we’ve seen so far is indicative of what Tennessee could be this year. We knew we were losing a lot of playmakers on offense, and it would be a tall task to replace them and keep up similar production. Tennessee has more rushing than passing yards this year, which probably wont hold up after we get into conference play, but it could be a sign of where the strength of the offense is for this year.
But if this Saturday does end up being the worst case scenario, that spells worry for the Volunteers. A win truly hinges on whether Tennessee will have an explosive passing attack, or if they will end up continuing to struggle. The good news is we should at least know early if that’s the case. If the offense comes out and Milton connects on a few chunk plays and a couple of bombs, then we know as well as that crowd that the Vols can run away with this.
But if that’s not the case, and we see another super slow offensive start with a couple of three-and-outs, a sack here or there, or a turnover…then that crowd is more amped up than ever, and Florida has Tennessee in the exact kind of game they want them in.
A Dogfight
So how well are the Vols prepared to face this kind of battle in the Swamp? Well, for starters, it’ll be exponentially tougher in that environment. That’s when you have drives stall out due to false starts and bad penalties, miscommunication on defense, and a tougher time cashing in redzone trips for 6.
Luckily for Tennessee, they should be getting Cooper Mays back for this matchup. The veteran center is a captain on this offensive line, and should be able to identify blitzers to pick up and just bring some calmness and stability for that unit in a tough environment.
In the redzone, the Vols have been near perfect so far this year, converting on 12 of 13 trips. 9 of those have ended in touchdowns, while 3 have scored field goals. Conversely, Florida has only allowed 2 total redzone trips, and touchdowns on each of them. The Gators limited Utah to only 1 redzone attempt, but the Utes scored 17 points outside of the redzone; that’s two touchdowns on explosive plays. That could be a recipe that swings in Tennessee’s favor, if they can take advantage through the air.
Defensively, it’s tough to really predict what to expect.
Florida had an absolute horrific showing running the ball against Utah — a whopping 0.62 yards/carry! Last week, against McNeese, their average jumped to 6.41 and they ran the ball about 30 more times.
That’s definitely not the formula they’ll use this weekend, but I also wouldn’t expect the Gators to repeat whatever playcalls or gameplan that led to the abysmal number they posted in Week 1, simply because that’s way too small a number for a team to hang around all season. We’ll see a better performance from them, but they’ll have a tough battle against a Tim Banks defense that has been historically excellent against the run and allowing 2.35 yards/carry this year.
Will Florida’s run game be held in check anywhere close to how they were against Utah? Will they be more in the neighborhood of last week’s FCS game? I’d venture to guess somewhere closer to that Utah result, but it could slide in UF’s favor if they can open up the passing game, and that brings me to another matchup that has haunted Tennessee fans in this series.
The Florida QB
Graham Mertz is still pretty new to Florida, but he has looked solid so far. Against Utah he threw for 333 yards and 1 TD while completing 70% of his passes. The real battle will start with the offensive line and the run game against the Tennessee front seven, but if they can find enough success to live in 3rd and short all game, then Mertz is in a favorable position to keep the Gators’ offense converting.
But can their offensive line protect him? The Vols could have a deadly edge here, if the pass rush is for real. Florida is giving up a 10% sack rate, which is 109th in the country. They gave up 5 sacks against Utah, a team that actually failed to record a single sack in their Week 2 matchup against Baylor. Tennessee’s pass rush meanwhile has looked phenomenal, tying for first in the nation in sacks with 11. Tyler Baron and James Pearce Jr. are tied for 5th in the country in sacks, having 3 apiece.
Whether Mertz has much time to throw or not doesn’t matter if his receivers are able to get open quick enough on short throws. This matchup for Tennessee’s secondary is extremely murky. The unit is 29th in the country in yards/attempt, but they are also extremely untested. This is a group that was pretty notorious last year, so we need to see them prove themselves in a higher caliber game. They’ll face a good first test this week against Ricky Pearsall, who is far and away the Gators’ number one receiving target. They’ll also have to look out for freshman Eugene Wilson, a high four-star prospect that could be poised for a breakout game.
Final Thoughts
This is always a huge game for Tennessee, and that continues this year. Last season, the Vols really jumped onto everyone’s radar after they beat Florida. This weekend, all eyes will be on them again in primetime to see if Heupel can continue the momentum he’s built, and if he can break another couple of streaks going against UT.
Can this offense step up to replace last year’s talent? Is the defense truly improved? Is Tennessee’s ascent to the top going to continue? Or will Florida, like many times before, beat the Vols anyway?
Staff Picks
The Model — Tennessee 27, Florida 13
Ben Ashworth —
Travis Hamilton — Tennessee 41, Florida 23
James Hines —Tennessee 24, Florida 21
Jack Pierce Jr. — Tennessee 38, Florida 13
Dylan Vogel — Tennessee 31, Florida 23
Written by Dylan Vogel, Director of Writing at VSPN
All stats from sports-reference.com and ESPN
