Tennessee vs. Georgia Preview
Who? #1 Georgia Bulldogs (10–0, 7–0) vs. #18 Tennessee Volunteers (7–3, 3–3)
Where? Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN (watch on CBS)
When? 3:30 PM ET, November 18, 2023
Series — Georgia leads the series 27–23–2 with a 6-game winning streak. There hasn’t been a single-digit final score in the series since 2016, the last time Tennessee won.
Spread — Georgia -10.5 (FanDuel), 69.2% chance to win (FPI)
Well, that happened. Tennessee got completely handled on both lines of scrimmage in a game that was supposed to be a lot more competitive. The craziest part was seeing the most reliable parts of this team just straight up fail. But anyways, we turn our attention to this week’s game.
The Volunteers will be welcoming #1 Georgia into Neyland Stadium this Saturday. For the first time since 2021, it doesn’t feel like Tennessee has a real shot at winning their upcoming game. That’s still improvement we’ve seen under Heupel, but I get how it can be frustrating returning to that feeling. But a large part of that has to do with just how good Georgia has looked.
So, since this game is looking like a long-shot, I’ll try to paint the picture of what an upset could look like if one is in the cards.
Neyland Stadium
Tennessee fans need to absolutely bring everything for this game. Georgia is undefeated under Kirby Smart in SEC East road games, but Tennessee has won 14-straight at home, including a top-10 win against Alabama.
Even UGA offensive lineman Tate Ratledge paid respect, saying it’s “the best stadium in the SEC”.
It will be the toughest environment that first-year starter Carson Beck has played in. He’s had a better than expected season as a new starter, but could be due for a down game. Getting him in third-and-long situations and facing down the crowd will be the first step in rattling him.
Again, Kirby has done really well on the road, and he always has this team get up for tough games. But if there’s any shot for Tennessee, it has to start here.
Defensive Line
I think I’ve mentioned this unit every game, but there’s a reason they say games are won in the trenches, and the Vols’ defensive line is their best unit on defense.
They’re 8th in the country in sacks, and 15th in rushing yards per carry. They thrive on getting negative plays, and that will be crucial on early downs to get the Georgia offense off-schedule and carry the energy of the crowd.
The problem of course will be actually making that happen. The Bulldogs are 7th in sacks allowed and 10th in rushing yards/carry. They’re also very good on early downs, tying Missouri for 20th least in total third down attempts, while simultaneously ranking 1st in the country in third down conversion percentage.
The Vols forced Mizzou to 17 third downs last week and recorded 3 sacks, but they also gave up 5 yds/carry and 68% on third downs. Obviously there will need to be a much better performance this week that is closer to their season average.
Creating negative plays early and forcing key stops will put the UGA offense behind schedule, but it will also make sure they don’t take the crowd out of the game and instead keep feeding into it to make this a much closer, longer game to give the offense a shot to win.
Tennessee Run Game
Again, a unit that I think I’ve talked about in most game previews. Much like the pass rush/run defense, the run game has been the strength on the offensive side of the ball.
This also disappeared last week against the Tigers, which was one of the biggest surprises of the game. Another surprise though is they’ll be facing a defense that isn’t quite as good defending the run.
It definitely isn’t a glaring weakness, but it is relatively weaker compared to Mizzou’s, and to the Bulldogs’ pass defense. It could be an area the Vols can capitalize on, especially considering it’s where this offense has been best at all year.
Meanwhile, the passing game will continue to struggle and be more of a compliment to the run game. Georgia’s secondary is extremely stout, arguably one of the best in the country.
Final Thoughts
The Volunteers will be looking to play spoiler to undefeated Georgia, potentially even helping to knock them out of the CFB if they go on to lose against Bama.
Last season, South Carolina was left for dead before pulling off a major home upset over Tennessee. Can the Vols force the same situation onto top-ranked Georgia?
They play their best ball at home, and they’ll be (hopefully) playing in wounded animal mode now after last week.
Anything can happen, but even though there wasn’t a single warning sign of the Carolina game happening last year, I don’t think something like that can happen to this Georgia team. Kirby has them playing like vintage Bama: a team that is just not going to beat themselves, and will take opponents seriously when they need to.
It’s quite the long-shot for the Vols, and I just don’t see that happening.
Staff Picks
The Model (6–4) — Georgia 43, Tennessee 27
Ben Ashworth (7–3) — Georgia 37, Tennessee 10
Travis Hamilton (7–3) — Tennessee 24, Georgia 20
James Hines (6–4) — Georgia 45, Tennessee 14
Jack Pierce Jr. (7–3) — Georgia 27, Tennessee 24
Dylan Vogel (6–4) — Georgia 45, Tennessee 17
Written by Dylan Vogel, Director of Writing at VSPN
All stats from sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, and ESPN
