Tennessee vs. Georgia Preview
Who? #3 Georgia Bulldogs (8–0, 5–0) vs. #1 Tennessee Volunteers (8–0, 4–0)
Where? Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA
When? 3:30 PM ET, November 5, 2022
Series — Georgia leads 26–23–2; Georgia has won the last 5 straight; Tennessee last won in Athens in 2016.
Spread — Georgia -8.0 (Caesar’s), Georgia 74.5% chance to win (FPI)
It’s November and the Tennessee Volunteers are still undefeated. Not only that, but they sit atop college football as the #1 team in the first CFP Rankings of 2022. That sets up for a tremendous battle for the SEC East against the defending 2021 National Champion, the Georgia Bulldogs.
In terms of team production and coaching turnaround, this Tennessee squad has so far been commonly compared to both the 2019 LSU and the 2000 Oklahoma teams. But that all goes away with a loss this Saturday.
These Vols will be facing their greatest challenge yet on the road in Athens. Despite being ranked #1 in the country, they’re still underdogs against the Bulldogs. That’s because in the eyes of Vegas, Tennessee is still not proven enough, especially when compared to what Georgia has done the last several years. That, and they’ll be going on the road into a hostile environment.
If Tennessee can pull off the upset, you can pretty much pencil them in to go to Atlanta and face off against the winner of the SEC West. Perhaps even a loss there would mean the College Football Playoffs. And the Vols being ranked #1 already could mean that the Committee would value them as a 1-loss, non conference champion with a good shot to get in regardless. But that’s already enough about that, let’s stay focused on the game ahead.
Keys to the Game
As mentioned before, Tennessee is playing as an underdog this Saturday. This will be a massive battle of strengths, much like the Alabama game. What will be their path to win? What match-ups will figure to be most important? We’ll look at two keys for the Tennessee offense, then two keys for the defense.
The Tennessee Run Game
Did you know that the Vols run the ball more than Georgia does? Even knowing how much the Tennessee run game powers the offense, I don’t think I would have guessed that. To many when they think of this Tennessee offense, they visualize Hendon Hooker letting go a deep ball and Jalin Hyatt running wide-open past the opponent secondary. But there’s a lot more to it than that.
Tennessee Rushing Averages
Attempts per game — 43 (16th)
Yards per game — 200 (24th)
Yards per rush — 4.6 (48th)
Touchdowns per game — 3 (4th)
The running game is the battery to this offense. They’ve managed to rack up over 175 yards in every game except against Pitt, who held them to only 91. Against Alabama, who has the 12th best rushing defense in the country at 94 yards/game, the Vols managed 182 yards.
To open up the long ball, Tennessee uses short and methodical passes, usually to the perimeter. To open up those passes, the offense needs to spread out the defense, which they are able to do by forcing the defense to pay special attention to the run. The Tide had to rely on extra defenders to keep the Vols from bleeding them out on the ground, and that’s what gave way to Hooker being able to carve them up.
So then what about Georgia’s defense?
Here’s how the Bulldogs stack up to that Alabama defense:
Rushing Yards/attempt
Georgia — 3.2
Alabama — 2.7
Passing Yards/attempt
Georgia — 5.7
Alabama — 5.8
Nearly identical numbers except for Alabama actually being a half yard better than the Bulldogs on the ground. The difference in total yards can be misleading because teams run the ball about 8 carries less per game against Georgia than they do Bama, mainly because the Bulldogs have been dominating games more than the Tide have.
Tennessee isn’t going to knock off a lot of highlight plays in that department. But they have proven that they can do enough to be dangerous and force defenses to pay respect to it. This offensive line neutralized the famed Alabama pass rush and paved the way on the ground, and they can do it against this front too.
The difference in this game will largely come down to how many Georgia defenders can keep the Vols’ run game contained. Will it be 4 or 5? Or will the Bulldogs be forced to use an extra defender and leave someone exposed in the secondary?
Mismatches and Scheme
The first key was the run game. Open that up, and you look for the mismatches on the perimeter and the deep ball. Against Alabama, Jalin Hyatt absolutely torched the secondary en route to 5 touchdowns. This Saturday, Tennessee will also have Cedric Tillman back, who already proved last year and early this season he is every bit as dangerous. He didn’t jump off the field last week in his return against Kentucky, but what he did do was draw attention on more than a couple of plays to spring Hyatt open.
Heupel has been an offensive wizard at finding mismatches in opposing secondaries this season. The scheme that he’s used has done a few things.
First, it uses formations to stretch the defense out and open up a lot of field, opening up running lanes and trying to force one-on-one match-ups. Then, it uses tempo to isolate mismatches, create miscommunication, and tire out the opposing defense. The tempo can also help in a hostile environment such as Athens. At this point, there’s a mismatch somewhere on the field, and the offense can take advantage of it. It could be a light box that could be repeatedly hit until the defense moves down a defender, and at that point there could be a mismatch either over-top or to the boundary. So far this season, nobody has been able to defend it, least of all a more talented team in Alabama.
While Georgia most definitely possesses the talent to outclass the Vols in the traditional sense, this offense has proven it’s able to work around that. The Bulldogs make a good case to be one of the best defenses in the country, and in my opinion they are. But this offense has shown to be special, and possess the ability to move the ball against some tougher competition. And going back to the offensive line, they held Will Anderson and company completely in check, so I give them the edge against this Georgia pass rush as well.
Tennessee D-Line
Tennessee’s defensive line and to an extent their front seven as a whole don’t get the respect that they deserve. They’ve been harassing opponent backfields and stuffing the run all year. Per Football Outsiders:
Tennessee Defensive Line
Sacks/game — 2.62 (33rd)
Line yards/carry — 2.18 (10th)
Stuff rate— 25.3% (9th)
The pass rush could translate a little better in terms of sacks, but they still are a major disruption to the pocket. Just watch the film of Bryce Young running sideline-to-sideline evading sacks. For Georgia, they have a respectable offensive line and a really good QB in Stetson Bennett. But how much better is that offensive line than Bama’s? And can Stetson evade would-be tacklers like Young was able to?
The real edge for the Vols will be their run defense. They’ve been able to stuff Power 5 opponents to 3 yards/carry. And that’s against quality competition too — they’ve faced two of the top 3 best yards/carry offenses in the country in Alabama and Florida. Both those teams average 6 and 5.9 yards/clip respectively. Tennessee held them to 3.7 and 3.3. That 3.7 number is the best rate that any team has faced against this front, and that’s with running back Jahmyr Gibbs leading the attack.
The Bulldogs having moderate success here and at least hitting that 3.7 mark will go a long way in determining how well the Georgia offense can keep up, but it’s only one part of the puzzle.
Bennett, Bowers, and Washington
The Georgia offense runs through Stetson Bennett and the tight end group. The Bulldogs have a great experienced QB and the best pair of tight ends in the country in Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington. Bowers leads the receiving room with 547 yards and 3 TDs, while Washington is their #3 receiver with 332 yards. Both are big frames that create some nightmare match-ups in coverage — 6'4" 230 and 6'7" 265 respectively.
The Tennessee coaches are well aware of their threat, but it’ll be a tall task to stop them. While the Vols’ secondary isn’t quite as bad as advertised when you look at their yards/attempt number (6.9), there is still arguably more of a receiving threat underneath against this offense than there was against Bama.
The key here will be crucial stops. If Tennessee’s offense can keep rolling and get a similar yard/clip and scoring rate as they did against Bama, then the game will come down to getting this offense off the field just a couple extra times in critical third downs. The Bulldogs will be able to move the ball with this trio, but how well will they fare on third downs and taking care of the ball?
Against Power 5 Opponents
Third Down Percentage
Georgia — 54.22%
Tennessee — 31.68%
Turnovers/game
Georgia giveaways— 1.3
Tennessee takeaways— 2.0
Turnover margin/game
Georgia — -0.1
Tennessee — +1
It’ll be another battle of strengths on third down. Georgia is good at converting them, while Tennessee has been good at defending them. It’s anyone’s guess whose way it’ll go Saturday, but you’ve got to think that Tennessee has played tougher offenses than Georgia has played defenses.
When it comes to turnovers, the Vols have a clear edge here. The defense thrives on creating and making negative plays, just as this coaching staff preaches. Tennessee leads the SEC in TO’s/game; 1st in interceptions and 5th in fumbles.
For Tennessee to pull the upset, all Tennessee would need to do is play loose and keep playing to their strengths. Sticking to their identity of tempo and mismatch on offense, paired with their identity of negative plays and bend-don’t-break philosophy gives the Vols a really good chance at the upset.
Staff Picks
The Model (6–2) — Georgia 42, Tennessee 40
Ben Ashworth (6–2) — Tennessee 38, Georgia 34
Travis Hamilton (8–0) — Tennessee 38, Georgia 27
James Hines (7–1) — Tennessee 38, Georgia 35
Brian Johnson (8–0) — Tennessee 48, Georgia 42
Jack Pierce, Jr. (7–1) — Tennessee 41, Georgia 40
Dylan Vogel (7–1) — Tennessee 44, Georgia 37
Written by Dylan Vogel, Director of Writing at VSPN
