Tennessee vs. Iowa Preview
Who? #17 Iowa Hawkeyes (10–3, 7–2) vs. #21 Tennessee Volunteers (8–3, 4–4)
Where? Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL (watch on ABC)
When? 1:00 PM ET, January 1, 2024
Series — Tennessee leads the series 2–1. The two teams first met in the 1982 Peach Bowl, where Iowa won 28–22. Tennessee won the next two meetings; a 1987 regular season game in East Rutherford (23–22), and the 2015 TaxSlayer Bowl (45–28).
Spread — Tennessee -5.5 (FanDuel), 70.6% chance to win (FPI)
Christmas has come and gone, and that means Bowl Season is reaching its peak as we approach New Year’s Day. Tennessee will be facing off against the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Vols’ 6th Citrus Bowl appearance.
This is turning out to be an intriguing matchup for several reasons. While Tennessee comes into the game sporting average units on both sides of the ball, it’s quite a different story for the Hawkeyes. Iowa boasts one of the best defenses in the entire country, but also one of the absolute worst offenses.
On top of that, the Vols have taken a hit in the transfer portal, most notably in the secondary, which was already a weakness on the defensive side. A lot of young talent will be seeing the field, but it will be against the worst passing offense in the country.
The biggest storyline however just broke this past Wednesday; Joe Milton III will be opting out for the NFL Draft, meaning Nico Iamaleava will be getting his first career start in the Orange & White.
With so many young players about to see the field, it’ll be exciting to see a glimpse of what the 2024 Tennessee team could resemble.
Nico Time
With Milton opting out for the draft, the torch has officially been passed to former 5-star QB Nico Iamaleava. Fans have been clamoring for him to get more playing time all season, and it’ll finally happen as we put a wrap on this year’s campaign.
In the 2023 cycle, Nico was a consensus five-star prospect ranked as the №1 overall player by On3. He was ranked the №2 overall prospect and №2 quarterback by Rivals and 247Sports. Additionally, he was evaluated by 247sports as a perfect 100 rated prospect and given a 0.9980 composite rating, making him Tennessee’s 3rd highest rated recruit ever. He was also named the 2022 Polynesian High School Player of the Year and was selected as the Offensive MVP of the Polynesian Bowl.
In highschool and in limited playtime at Tennessee, he has shown great pocket awareness, escapability, and ability to throw on the run. He played in four games during the regular season, meaning his start in the Citrus Bowl will burn his redshirt for the season. Against Virginia and UTSA, Nico only threw 5 pass attempts, but against UConn and Vanderbilt he saw more action, throwing for a combined 14/21, 152 yards, and 1 TD.
The big question everyone will be excited to have answered is how will he fare in his first full start? It could be a glimpse into what next year could be, but regardless on how well or poorly he performs, the results should still be taken with a grain of salt in regards with forecasting his 2024 performance. The playbook and calls this season have been specifically tailored to Joe Milton, and most game prep and installation for Iowa has (as far as we know as least) been done with Milton in mind as the starter.
Nico will also be getting his first collegiate start against a very tough and well-coached Iowa defense, one that has been one of the very best in the country in 2023.
Iowa’s Defense: Elite?
Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz is by far the Hawkeyes longest tenured and winningest coach in school history, as well as the longest tenured active head coach in college football. He’s well-known for being a defensive minded coach and his teams having a core identity focused on defense, and this is arguably one of the best that he’s had.
But how legit is their defense? They’ve played only three Top 50 scoring offenses, two teams Top 50 in passing, and three Top 50 in rushing. Only one team actually ranks inside the Top 50 in all three of those categories, and that’s Utah State, who plays in the Mountain West. Meanwhile, Tennessee also ranks inside the Top 50 in those categories, and will be the best running offense the Hawkeyes will have faced by a decent margin.
Does that mean this defense isn’t as strong as they seem? Possibly, but playing weaker offenses doesn’t automatically mean that the Iowa defense is suddenly not as great as they look. Looking even deeper, the Hawkeyes defense holds opponents to -27% of their yards/attempt. So, while they have played some bad offenses, they have still held those teams to way less than they average otherwise.
The question then is can Iowa’s defense do the same to Tennessee? The Vols on the other hand average more yards/att than their opponents allow in each category. The passing numbers reflect the regression we’ve seen on the field in the pass game. But on the ground, UT has been phenomenal. They’ve also faced two top 20 defenses (Kentucky and Texas A&M) who they averaged 5 yards/carry against.
The matchup in the run game will be the key for the Vols offense. With the way Heupel’s offense operates, and with Nico’s first start, it is essential to be able to pose a threat on the ground. It’s also where Tennessee’s strength this season has been. It’ll be a battle between the №6 rushing offense and №8 rushing defense, both of which have put up elite numbers even compared to what their opponents allow. It will also be the toughest test of the season for both units.
And much like Nico getting his first start, Dylan Sampson will be getting his first as well for this game with Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small opting out. Cam Seldon and Khalifa Keith should also be seeing carries too. All three backs are actually higher touted recruits than Wright and Small were, and Sampson has been electric this year when he’s touched the ball.
Tennessee’s Defense: A Depleted Secondary
If you haven’t noticed a trend here yet, it’s freshmen getting starting spots for this game. That trend continues looking at the Tennessee secondary, where a large amount of players have hit the portal.
Seven DBs have entered, including starters and heavy rotation guys such as Doneiko Slaughter, Tamarion McDonald, Wesley Walker, Brandon Turnage, and Warren Burrell. They’ll also be down Kamal Hadden, who underwent season-ending surgery in October. All of those guys were seniors.
Gabe Jeudy-Lally (CB) and Jaylen McCollough (S) are the only returning starters for this game, and will be the only ones with much experience. Jordan Matthews and Rickey Gibson were some highly touted freshmen from last cycle that will likely be getting their first starts, as well as sophomore Andre Turrentine and freshman John Slaughter. There are only a handful of guys left behind them on scholarship for rotation, so the Vols will be paper thin in the secondary.
It’ll be exciting seeing a lot of fresh names on defense, but how concerning is that for this matchup? Probably not too much.
Iowa’s passing game is putrid, ranking near deadlast in every single category. It’s about the exact inverse of what their defense has been.
Cade McNamara transferred in from Michigan this past offseason, and it had many people anticipating a big improvement in the passing game. That didn’t materialize so much in the first month of the season before he went down with a season-ending injury.
Backup Deacon Hill stepped in Week 5 and has been pretty lackluster for the Hawkeyes, only throwing 53% for 932 yards and 4 TDs in eight starts. That’s an average of 117 yards/game, and he’s only recorded one game of 200+ yards (Rutgers). He’s also had less than 100 passing yards in three seperate games (Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Nebraska).
Tight End Erick All leads the team in receiving with 299 yards, and is one of only two players with more than 200 total receiving yards, the other being receiver Nico Ragaini.
Even with a depleted secondary, I don’t think Iowa will be able to move the ball through the air close to effectively. Tennessee’s glaring weakness may be in the secondary, but as long as the Vols are able to just get bodies out on the field it should be enough against this passing game.
That’s also not even mentioning how well Tennessee’ pash rush and run defense matches up, which are strengths for their defense. And just like the Hawkeyes passing game, the run game and offensive line are also very weak.
Being able to take advantage of these other matchups will do nothing but help out any deficiencies that the secondary may face. The Vols will be without Tyler Baron, but I expect James Pearce Jr. to continue to be a major factor, as well as one of Tyre West or Chandavian Bradley stepping up.
Final Thoughts
This should be an exciting game to watch because of all the young talent that will be stepping into key roles for Tennessee. We’ll get a chance to see Nico’s first career start, as well as next year’s starting running back rotation and glimpses of the guys that could likely be making up the secondary.
A slightly above average Tennessee offense meets an elite Iowa defense; a really bad Iowa offense faces a depleted but mixed-bag Tennessee defense…how many do the Vols need to score to win? Could be a 10–6 sort of game.
I’m not super confident in UT being able to win, but mostly because the margin will be slim with how low scoring this game should be. The offense will be trying to play in quicksand, but they shouldn’t need many points at all in order to win. Still, with a game this low-scoring, one crazy play could be the difference in the game.
Staff Picks
The Model (8–4) — Tennessee 26, Iowa 16
Ben Ashworth (9–3) — Tennessee 13, Iowa 9
Travis Hamilton (8–4) — Tennessee 31, Iowa 10
James Hines (8–4) — Tennessee 28, Iowa 7
Jack Pierce Jr. (9–3) —
Dylan Vogel (8–4) — Tennessee 20, Iowa 16
Written by Dylan Vogel, Director of Writing at VSPN
All stats from sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, and ESPN
