Tennessee vs. Kentucky Preview
Who? Kentucky (5–2, 2–2) vs. #21 Tennessee Volunteers (5–2, 2–2)
Where? Kroger Field, Lexington, KY (watch on ESPN)
When? 7:00 PM ET, October 28, 2023
Series — Tennessee leads 83–26–9. Josh Heupel is 2–0 against Kentucky, and Tennessee is 4–2 in their last 6 trips to Lexington. The Wildcats last beat the Vols in 2020 in Neyland, and their last home win was in 2017.
Spread — Tennessee -3.5 (Caesar’s), 70.8% chance to win (FPI)
Last week the Vols were hot out of the gate, going up 20–7 at halftime on the road. They then watched the Tide score 27 unanswered to close out the game.
The loss brings UT’s season record to 5–2, which is still where we had this team at this point before the season. It hurt losing to a bad Florida team, and then again after being up big at Bama, but that’s why the A&M game was so huge.
This week, Tennessee hits the road for a second week in row against another rival. Playing on the road is never easy, and being in back-to-back spots is even harder. Throw in the fact that both opponents are conference rivals, plus the fact the Vols were battling Bama while Kentucky was resting up at home, and you start to get why this game is only a 3.5-point line.
I’ve said since before the season that this was a tough spot to catch the Wildcats. Before the Bama game, I was actually concerned about this becoming a letdown game if UT beat the Tide. Going back out on the road after an emotional win is tough, but now after a loss, Tennessee will hopefully be playing with a chip on their shoulder.
With that being said, let’s dive into this Saturday’s matchup.
Playstyle
It would be tough to say that the playstyle of these two teams and coaches could be more different. Heupel, and even DC Tim Banks, likes to be the aggressor. The offense spreads the field and uses lightning quick tempo, while the defense thrives on aggressive playcalling and creating negative plays.
Mark Stoops, however, takes pride in a completely different kind of playstyle. Kentucky loves to slow down the game and eat away time of possession, focusing on ball control. It’s a more conservative kind of game, a difference that sparked some trash talking last season.
For both teams, there’s a couple of huge keys that play into their gameplan.
Run Game
Both the Vols and the Cats like to emphasize the run game, and despite having differing playstyles, it can be looked at as the batteries for their offenses.
For Tennessee, the run game centers around their running back trio of Jaylen Wright, Jabari Small, and Dylan Sampson. It really serves as the balance with running receivers that have such wide splits. Stretching the field horizontally stresses the defense into emptying the box to account for that amount of field, but the vertical run game takes advantage of that light box. This means an opposing defense has to beat Tennessee’s run blocking straight-up while being outmanned, something that not many teams are able to do. If they choose to load the box, then the Vols are able to work on those outside one-on-one matchups that are left open.
Kentucky’s run defense is really tough, but the Vols have played two straight games against Top 20 run defenses and have averaged 183 yards/game and 4.2 yards/carry. They topped 100 yards in both games, and over 200 against Texas A&M.
Kentucky has only played one Top 25 run offense, and that was #24 Georgia. They gave up 173 rushing yards and 5.6/carry to the Bulldogs.
For Kentucky’s offense, Ray Davis leads the way on the ground with 781 yards (12th nationally). The run game for the Wildcats is big on bleeding the clock and keeping the opposing offense off the field.
Because they run the clock down so low however, it results in less total rushes per game. So, despite being 4th in the country in yards/attempt, they are only 68th in yards/game. For this game however, the Wildcats will be able to run more snaps due to how quickly Tennessee’s offense moves. If the Vols can’t hold them closer to their own defensive average per attempt, then UK’s offense will have a much easier time keeping up.
For Tennessee, they’ll want to keep the offense out on the field to not just go and score points, but give the defense a break from the long methodical drives that Kentucky’s offense wants to run. For the Wildcats, extending those drives keeps the Tennessee defense on the field, but also keeps their offense off. Having success for both teams starts with running the ball well, but it will also boil down to being able to get enough yardage to either mostly avoid third downs, or supply plenty of third and short scenarios.
Third Downs
With the playstyles for this game setup, it could very much all depend on third down conversions.
The Vols have the edge here on both offense and defense. The Wildcats allow nearly 44% of third downs to be converted, which is near the bottom of the country. Meanwhile, UT is in the top half of the country, converting 43%, nearly that same amount. If Tennessee can hit that number or beyond (which is a good chance considering UK is allowing slightly more than the Vols have gotten) then it should give their offense what they need to rebound after a couple of low scoring weeks.
On the other side, Kentucky is also in the bottom half of offensive third down conversions nationally. The Volunteers are closer to the top, coming in at 29th. With the Cats already converting at a sizably lower rate than Tennessee, and UT’s defense allowing even less than UK is converting, there’s a clear path to the defense being able to get off the field and prevent them from grinding out long drives.
Final Thoughts
This is a game that Stoops’s squad usually plays Tennessee close in. Last season was an absolute rout, but with a regressed offense this season, plus all the other dynamics I’ve already mentioned, it’s highly likely this year will be a lot closer.
Kentucky has the full capability to catch the Vols coming off a gut-wrenching second half at Bama. If they can’t respond, then all the pieces are there for the Cats to muscle out a home win against Tennessee.
For me, I’m still pretty hesitant, but I’m going to pick the Vols being able to rebound and put together enough to get the win and come home to play UConn.
Staff Picks
The Model (4–3) — Tennessee 31, Kentucky 18
Ben Ashworth (5–2) — Tennessee 28, Kentucky 17
Travis Hamilton (5–2) —Tennessee 38, Kentucky 17
James Hines (3–4) — Tennessee 35, Kentucky 14
Jack Pierce Jr. (5–2) —
Dylan Vogel (4–3) — Tennessee 31, Kentucky 27
Written by Dylan Vogel, Director of Writing at VSPN
All stats from sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, and ESPN
