Tennessee vs. Missouri Preview
Who? #14 Missouri Tigers (7–2, 3–2) vs. #13 Tennessee Volunteers (7–2, 3–2)
Where? Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO (watch on CBS)
When? 3:30 PM ET, November 11, 2023
Series — Tennessee leads the series 6–5 and are currently on a 4-game winning streak, winning their last two by an average of 40 points. Missouri last beat Tennessee in 2018, and their last home win was the prior year.
Spread — Tennessee -1.5 (FanDuel), 60.9% chance to win (FPI)
Back in the preseason, this game was easily penciled in as a Tennessee win. The Tigers were coming off a 6–7 season, their 2023 projected win total was at 6 wins, and Heupel’s squads had outscored them 128–48. Eli Drinkwitz was coming into his fourth season with pressure to have a breakthrough season…and they’ve done just that.
Mizzou is 7–2 overall with three wins against KFord top-40 teams, and their only losses coming against LSU and Georgia, both rated top-10. Both their offense and defense is rated as top-30 units after returning a lot of production from last season and benefiting from a healthier Brady Cook.
A lot of fans are still going to write this game off as a rinse and repeat of the last couple of seasons. But I strongly disagree with that, and so does Vegas and various outlets and predictive stats. But let’s dive deeper into why.
Missouri’s Offense…Up
Last year, the Tigers’ offense is what held them back. They ranked in the bottom half of most offensive categories, and scored only 24.8 ppg. They lost 4 one-possession games where their defense held opponents to 26 or less points.
This year, they’ve jumped up to 32.4 ppg, good enough for 36th in the country. It’s currently the best scoring offense Tennessee will have faced. That offensive jump is mainly due to Brady Cook, Luther Burden, and Cody Schrader.
Cook had an average season last year, but it came out that he played the majority of the season with a torn labrum. His completion percentage this year is up, as well as his yards/attempt and efficiency rating. He’s currently 4th in the SEC in passing yards at 2,471.
Luther Burden, the former #2 WR in the 2022 recruiting class, is just 42 yards away from eclipsing the 1,000 yard receiving mark. He stepped into Dominic Lovett’s position at slot after Lovett transferred to Georgia this past offseason, and he’s already beat Lovett’s 2022 yardage total by 100 yards.
Cody Schrader leads Mizzou on the ground and has racked up 919 rushing yards, 10 TDs, and averages 5.7 yards/carry. That’s already eclipsed his 2022 totals of 745 yards, 9 TDs, and 4.4 yards/carry. He’s central in an offense that is very balanced, at least from a playcalling perspective.
Despite Schrader’s phenomenal year carrying the ball and the balanced playcalling, the offensive production mainly comes from the passing game. The Tigers rank 23rd in passing and 78th in rushing. Burden has been dominant in the receiving game, but he’s also complimented by Theo Wease and Mookie Cooper.
Looking at season-long stats, the Vols’ defense does match up well against them, especially seeing that the secondary is 30th in the country in yards/pass, a far-cry from last year’s results.
The issue is there looks to have been some regression since Kamal Hadden went out for the season. Against Kentucky, they gave up 372 yards and 9.5 yards/att. Their numbers against UConn came back down to normal, but it was UConn, and there were many times during that game where they looked lost.
You can argue that Tim Banks’ defensive plan against Kentucky was to completely shut down Ray Davis and the running game and allow Devin Leary to take whatever he wanted to through the air. I wouldn’t completely disagree with that either, but the same gameplan could very well happen again. Schrader actually leads Davis and even the SEC in total rushing yards, and is 2nd in attempts.
The gameplan against Kentucky won the game, but I think you have to pay a lot more respect to Mizzou’s passing game in this case. They have a better quarterback and better receivers than the Wildcats, and they’re more than capable of moving the ball against UT’s defense. It will come down to a couple of key areas for the defense.
Sacks and Field Goals
Two things this defense can and needs to do to win the game: bring pressure to Cook and force field goals.
Being able to actually get pressure on Cook and bring him down for sacks may actually be a lot harder than it sounds. The Tigers have an average pass protection, but there’s been a concern on where Tennessee’s pass rush has gone the last couple weeks. But why?
I’m truly not one to ever blame officiating, and I’m certainly not blaming it for any losses here…and this will probably be the only time I’ll ever bring it up…but it’s been really bad.
There has not been a single holding call on a Tennessee opponent since Texas A&M, which was 4 games ago. In all three of Tennessee’s road games this season, there has only been one holding call, and it came against Florida 8 weeks ago. It’s also the only live-ball penalty that has been called in the Vols’ favor on the road. In that same stretch, Tennessee has been called for 8 live-ball penalties for 85 yards. For comparison, in the two SEC games at home, opponents were called for 12 live-ball penalties for 118 yards and the Vols had 7 of them for 90.
I could also truly put on the tinfoil hat and use the dozens of pictures of Tennessee players in headlocks, but I digress. As someone who really is against putting much blame on refs, I’m kind of hesitant to even be writing about this, but it has been something that’s been so seriously glaring. But anyways, hopefully we all get a fair game called in Columbia, and the pass rush can resurface. Rant over.
The other major thing to look for is Mizzou’s offense in the redzone. They are the #1 team in the country in redzone scoring percentage, but are 40th in trips that end in a touchdown. Tennessee, meanwhile, is 12th defensively, and 8th in forcing FGs over TDs.
The Tigers will probably get several shots with how I’m expecting them to move the ball, so it’ll come down to these key redzone stops. Forcing field goals would save a lot of points and take pressure off the offense from needing to get into an outright shootout, which we’ve seen they’re not exactly built for this year.
Tennessee’s Offense…Down
Last year, the Volunteers’ offense finished with some of the best numbers in the country. This year, there’s been some (albeit expected) regression in most categories, particularly in the passing category.
Obviously losing the pieces from last year’s squad hurt. That was a team that destroyed Missouri 66–24. Even in 2021, Hooker and the Vols beat them by about the same score: 62–24. Across both years, Hooker went 40/54 for 580 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. He was arguably the biggest difference in those games.
This is Joe Milton’s year though. That’s no knock on him, he’s had a good year. He’s got a 65% completion percentage, 147.41 rating, and has thrown for 2,016 yards and 15 TDs, with only 4 picks. It’s good enough for middle-of-the-SEC numbers, but it’s what Heupel has settled into with this different offense.
Heupel’s teams have always been sneaky-good running the ball, but this year has been different. The Vols are third in the country in rushing yards per game, and have not been held under 100 yards all season. That’s also while playing the 15th, 22nd, and 33rd ranked rushing defenses. Meanwhile, Missouri has the 26th ranked rush defense.
It’ll be strength vs strength, but Tennessee has proven multiple times now that they can run it against tough defenses, even on the road like we just saw against Kentucky. If the Vols can get to 200 yards rushing, I’ll feel very good about their chances: they’ve hit that mark in seven games this year, every game that they’ve been able to win.
Final Thoughts
An improved Missouri offense, a regressed Tennessee passing game, and stout run defenses on both sides all point to this being a much closer game than the previous two years.
The Volunteers got over some road woes in Lexington a couple weeks ago, and they’ll be facing a tougher challenge here with a New Year’s Six Bowl possibly on the line…and maybe even a shot at the SEC East.
I think it’ll really boil down to Tennessee’s pass rush and their run game. Get pressure on Cook, bring him down a couple of times, and get to 200+ yards. If they can do that, they’ll win this one.
Staff Picks
The Model (6–3) — Tennessee 31, Missouri 27
Ben Ashworth (7–2) — Tennessee 34, Missouri 31
Travis Hamilton (7–2) — Tennessee 37, Missouri 28
James Hines (5–4) — Missouri 35, Tennessee 28
Jack Pierce Jr. (7–2) — Tennessee 35, Missouri 24
Dylan Vogel (6–3) — Tennessee 34, Missouri 30
Written by Dylan Vogel, Director of Writing at VSPN
All stats from sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, and ESPN
