Tennessee vs. Pitt Preview
Who? #17 Pittsburgh Panthers (1–0) vs. #24 Tennessee Volunteers (1–0)
Where? Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
When? 3:30 PM ET, September 10, 2022
Series — Pitt leads 3–0 (41–34 win last year in Knoxville)
Spread — Tennessee -6.0 (Caesar’s), Tennessee 54.1% chance to win (FPI)
The Tennessee Volunteers are making the trip up to Pittsburgh and they’ll be looking to avenge last season’s 41–34 loss in Knoxville. Part two of the Johnny Majors Classic has very different storylines this time around. In fact, a lot about these teams and this matchup have completely flipped.
Firstly (and most obviously), Pitt is the home team this season. Last year, Pitt was favored by both Vegas and FPI to win on the road. This season, the Vols are favored on the road by both metrics. This is mostly a result of the composition of the teams changing from 2021-’22.
Last year, Pitt came into the matchup touting a ton of returning offensive production. Most notable was eventual Heisman finalist Kenny Pickett, who led Pitt to an ACC Championship. The Vols on the other hand were dealing with a record amount of turnover.
This season, the script has pretty much flipped. Pickett is in the NFL, and Pitt has had to replace 5 of their top 10 playmakers, including their star wide receiver Jordan Addison. Meanwhile, Tennessee has returned virtually all of their offensive production, but especially Hendon Hooker, who looks ready to have a very special season in his final year of eligibility.
What to Look For
Yards-per-rush
Heupel’s offense begins with setting up the run, and UT could be looking at a good advantage for this matchup. Against WVU, this Pitt team gave up 190 rushing yards and 5.8 yards/carry. Both of those numbers are worse than any game this unit had last season. West Virginia had one of the worst offensive lines in the Big 12 in ’21, coming dead last in rushing. Was this a regression for Pitt? Or has West Virginia’s offensive line gotten that much better than a year ago?
On the flipside, Pitt’s offense averaged only 2 yards/carry on 38 attempts. That’s only 76 yards, which would have been the second-lowest total of the season in 2021. And the last time they averaged that low per carry? In Knoxville last year. This doesn’t bode well if Narduzzi wants to double down on his dedication to the run like they did in the opener.
Hot Start?
Both teams should be anticipating a shootout. The Vols have the firepower and even the precedent to get out in front early (see Missouri and South Carolina 2021). Given Heupel’s style, it’s a given for UT. But what about Pitt?
With dedicating more to the run, Pitt also seems to have gone for a slower and more controlling pace of play. The Panthers ran just 62 offensive plays, running the ball on 56.7% of the time as opposed to 46.6% last season. They attacked West Virginia by attempting to control the game through the ground rather than looking to trade points. This plays into the Vols favor of getting out in front super quickly.
Pitt could still completely shift gears and change up their game plan for Tennessee. Quarterback Kedon Slovis may be new to Pitt, but he was a proven talent at USC and is quite experienced, throwing for over 7500 yards and 59 TDs over his career. If they hand it over to him to come out slinging the ball, we will likely see a shootout like last year’s game was.
Turnovers
The Vols had three turnovers in last year’s game against Pitt. Interestingly enough, two were from Hooker and one was from Milton. If the game does in fact turn shootout, there will be little margin for error. Fortunately, Hooker was known for taking good care of the ball last year: the 1 interception against Pitt was 1 of only 3 all season.
Still, a game that has the ability to be this close can easily come down to a costly mistake late. Pitt won last year’s game after sealing their lead with a late interception, and they beat West Virginia last week off a late pick-6. If Tennessee does lose this game, I see the most likely reason being that it comes off a costly turnover, whether Pitt forces it or the Vols give it away.
Make sure to check out our staff predictions below!
Staff Picks
Ben Ashworth — Tennessee 42, Pitt 38
Travis Hamilton —Tennessee 49, Pitt 24
James Hines — Tennessee 42, Pitt 20
Brian Johnson — Tennessee 35, Pitt 28
Jack Pierce, Jr. — Tennessee 42, Pitt 30
Dylan Vogel — Tennessee 42, Pitt 27
Written by Dylan Vogel, Director of Writing at VSPN
