Tennessee vs. South Carolina Preview
Who? South Carolina (2–2, 1–1) vs. #21 Tennessee Volunteers (3–1, 0–1)
Where? Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN (watch on SECN)
When? 7:30 PM ET, September 30, 2023
Series — Tennessee leads 28–11–2. South Carolina won last year’s game in Columbia, snapping a 3-game losing streak. The Gamecocks last won in Neyland in 2017.
Spread — Tennessee -12.0 (Caesar’s), Tennessee 70.2% chance to win (FPI)
The Vols will be out for revenge this Saturday when South Carolina comes to town. The Gamecocks offense exploded last November to knock Tennessee out of playoff contention.
So far this year, the Vols’ offense has regressed at a much more alarming rate than many anticipated. After a dud performance against Florida, the team rebounded against the Roadrunners of UTSA. But this week begins a stretch of conference play that will include Texas A&M, Alabama, and Kentucky.
Win and you continue to rebuild momentum off the early Florida loss and hopefully carry it through a tough upcoming gauntlet. Lose, and you could end up spiraling out of control through the meat of the schedule.
So, what to look for in this weekend’s game?
Sacks and TFLs
Tim Banks came under quite a bit of fire from the Vol fanbase after the Florida loss. Many were calling his gameplan not aggressive enough, which is saying something for the defensive signal caller who has harped on shaping a havoc wrecking defense focused on creating negative plays. But to the fans’ credit, the box score against Florida had a fair point.
Negative Plays at Florida
Sacks — 1
TFLs — 7
That was against a team whose offensive line has struggled limiting those kinds of plays. This weekend, Tennessee will be facing another struggling offensive line, this one arguably worse.
South Carolina: Negative Plays Allowed/Game
Sacks — 4.25 (127th)
TFLs — 8.75 (130th)
Negative plays and specifically sacks are a direct reason why teams like Florida and South Carolina appear to have as bad as rushing stats as they do. For the Gamecocks, their rushing average jumps from 2.3 to 3.5 yds/carry when adjusted for sack yardage. Not a world-beating run game by any stretch, but Tennessee absolutely has to create those negative plays like they have been able to under Banks.
With Pili’s continued absence, we’ll continue to see younger players such as Arion Carter get more snaps at linebacker. For younger players, you should want to see them be let loose to blitz the quarterback and not have to think as much right now as they learn their footing. Plus, it fits the goal of this defense to wreck havoc, attacks a key weakness the Gamecocks have, and plays to the Vols’ strengths.
Tennessee: Negative plays/game
Sacks — 4.0 (3rd)
TFLs — 9.75 (4th)
The negative plays feed this defense, feed the crowd, and it shuts down the opposing offense. The advantage is clearly there for Tennessee, they just need to actually dial it up and execute come game time. Rattler went 81% for 438 yards and 6 touchdowns last year, and dealt Heupel his only loss at Tennessee when scoring 30+ points. He’s completely capable of doing it again.
Disguising pressure and containing Rattler will be the key in making sure their offense can’t do what they did a season ago. Not only that, but I think that the entire game will hinge on it. If the defense is passive and allows him to carve up the secondary again, I don’t think the Vols will have enough answers to keep up offensively.
Passing Game
Transitioning over from one gripe the fanbase has had this early in the season, we cross sides of the ball to focus on another one: the passing game.
It should’ve been clear the offense would see some level of regression from last season, but it’s been a painful one so far. The Vols average only 7 passing yards/attempt, which is 16% less than what their opponents have given up. They also rank 106th in explosive pass plays.
It’s still up for debate what exactly is wrong with the offense. Many fans are blaming playcalling, some blame Milton, while others blame the offensive line.
Playcalling is something I stay away from second guessing because of how much behind the scenes strategizing goes into it, but it has definitely been different this year, with a lot more focus on stretching the field horizontally rather than vertically.
Meanwhile, Milton and the offensive line haven’t actually been performing poorly. Joe is at 62.5% for 925 yards, 8 TDs and only 1 INT. The offensive line is actually 29th in sacks allowed and 34th in sack percentage. The line has also been missing Cooper Mays all season, missed Gerald Mincey against Florida, and John Campbell left the game against UTSA. Mincey has since made his way back, but missing one or both of Mays and Campbell is a big loss to this unit.
Wherever the true struggles lie, if there’s ever a matchup you need to see the passing game come to life, this is it. Tennessee will be facing a South Carolina secondary that is extremely suspect. They’ve given up 10 passes of 30+ yards, which ranks 119th in the country.
Receivers will definitely get open, that’s been the only constant with the guys that we have and the scheme that we run. Much like the defense needing to take advantage of their mismatch, the offense needs to find its rhythm and find some explosive plays in a big way.
Final Thoughts
Everyone has had this game circled since last November. It will be a night game, the team is going dark mode, and Neyland will be on fire.
Tennessee has multiple matchup advantages and most of their position groups outclass South Carolina’s. The problem I have is I remember the poor execution against Florida a couple of weeks ago, especially defensively. Those problems could very well be fixed, but I’ve got to see them fixed before I’ll believe that they are.
Spencer Rattler and Xavier Legette could very easily have their way with the defense if the pass rush isn’t aggressive and/or can’t get home, which is what we saw against Florida. And until we see the offense actually have an explosive game, I’m not anticipating it showing up.
Most aren’t going to agree with that (most of the staff sure doesn’t) but those are my feelings just over 24 hours till kickoff. But hopefully I am completely wrong, and both sides of the ball surprise me. Maybe we get something a little bit like that dark mode night game against Kentucky last year…
Staff Picks
The Model (3–1) — Tennessee 35, South Carolina 28
Ben Ashworth (3–1) — Tennessee 24, South Carolina 20
Travis Hamilton (3–1) — Tennessee 52, South Carolina 24
James Hines (3–1) — South Carolina 38, Tennessee 35
Jack Pierce Jr. (3–1) — Tennessee 37, South Carolina 20
Dylan Vogel (3–1) — South Carolina 42, Tennessee 31
Written by Dylan Vogel, Director of Writing at VSPN
All stats from sports-reference.com and ESPN
