Tennessee vs. Texas A&M Preview
Who? Texas A&M (4–2, 2–1) vs. #19 Tennessee Volunteers (4–1, 1–1)
Where? Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN (watch on CBS)
When? 3:30 PM ET, October 14, 2023
Series — Tied at 2–2. Texas A&M has won the last two games in 2020 and 2016. Tennessee last won 38–7 in the 2005 Cotton Bowl.
Spread — Tennessee -3.0 (Caesar’s), Tennessee 56.8% chance to win (FPI)
After a much-needed bye week, the Volunteers are set for a tough cross-division game against the Texas A&M Aggies. While UT got to rest and spend extra time preparing for this weekend’s game, A&M had to face off against Nick Saban and Alabama, whom they lost to 26–20.
Both these teams have been largely counted out of their respective division races by most, but with only one conference loss apiece, they still have outside shots to make an appearance in Atlanta.
For Tennessee, this game is critical going forward. If they can keep hold of their momentum from the South Carolina game, a win against the Aggies will be crucial entering this tough stretch with road games against Bama, Kentucky, and Missouri, not to mention Georgia still looming.
With as talented a roster as A&M has, it should be no surprise that Vegas and various outlets and metrics are predicting a close game. With only a 3-point line, Vegas is pretty much saying this is a pick ’em not including home field.
So what are we looking at for this matchup?
Pass Rush
Both Texas A&M and Tennessee boast some really good pass rushers. A&M’s Edgerrin Cooper and UT’s James Pearce Jr. are in the top 15 in sacks nationally and top 5 in the SEC. Tyler Baron (Tennessee), Walter Nolen, and Shemar Turner (both A&M) also rank inside the top 10 in the conference.
Team Total Sacks
Tennessee — 22 (4th)
Texas A&M — 26 (1st)
Team Sacks/Game
Tennessee — 4.40 (2nd)
Texas A&M — 4.33 (3rd)
But what if one or both of these units is any bit overrated? Both teams have played opponents ranking very low in sacks allowed/game. A&M’s opponents have an average ranking of 81, while Tennessee’s are 113. The only one for either team that even cracks the top 50 is Miami at 17th.
For A&M, they’ll face a Tennessee offensive line ranked 27th, so not quite as good as Miami’s, but close to it. It should also be worth noting in that game, the Aggies recorded 2 sacks.
For the Vols, they will face an A&M line that is very middle-of-the-pack: 67th in sacks allowed/game. Even so, it will actually be the best offensive line UT has faced given that the next best was 97th ranked UTSA.
Strength vs Strength
The most important aspect and biggest strength of Tennessee’s offense is the run game. The Vols’ have one of the best running back committees in the nation, made up by Jaylen Wright (435 yards), Jabari Small (317 yards), and Dylan Sampson (248 yards). Together, they combine for exactly 1,000 yards and 9 touchdowns through 5 games. All three are in the SEC top 6 in yards/carry.
Getting the run game going is what allows the entire offense to operate. Adjusted for sack yardage, UT averages 6.6 yds/att (6th in FBS). They’ll be going up against the 16th ranked run defense averaging 3.9 yds/att (adjusted for sacks).
Also, remember the note about this upcoming stretch for Tennessee? This could be the toughest run defense they’ll face, but Alabama, Kentucky, and Missouri all rank inside the top 40 in rush defense.
This battle of strengths will very likely decide who wins the game, but it will also give us an idea of where the ceiling is on this run game, and what the next few weeks could look like.
Milton Against the Aggies’ Secondary
Despite the running game being the center of this offense (especially this year), folks want to know if the passing game will take off and if we will see some explosiveness.
On a per attempt basis, the Aggies have an average secondary. They allow 7.5 yards/att, tying for 77th in the country. The matchup here still favors them, as they hold opponents to slightly less than their average, while Tennessee only manages 12% less than what their opponents have allowed.
Where Tennessee could have an edge is explosive plays. The Vols have 12 plays of 40+ yards (9th in FBS), while Texas A&M ranks 123rd in the same category defensively. It’s a matchup that Miami and to a lesser extent Alabama took advantage of in their wins, but it will only be possible if UT can get the run game going to open up those deep shots.
The Aggie Offense
Connor Weigman was lost for the season a few weeks ago against Auburn, and Max Johnson has stepped back in at quarterback after getting a few starts last season.
A lot of people may remember how dreadful the Aggie offense was last year. They were bottom 40 nationally in scoring offense, points per play, and yards/game.
Under new Offensive Coordinator Bobby Petrino, A&M is 13th, 19th, and 38th in those same categories, respectively. They have the #31 passing offense and #66 rushing offense, but where they really shine is in third down conversions, converting at 47.44% (18th in FBS).
With Weigman’s injury however, the offense has taken a step back. Before his injury against Auburn, the Aggies averaged 44 ppg, 467 ypg, and 6.5 yds/play. In the two games since then, the offensive production has dropped to 27 ppg, 360 ypg, 5.6 yds/play. It doesn’t help that they played an extremely tough defense in Bama, but there is also the game against Arkansas to offset that a little. Regardless, there is still a palpable drop in offensive production.
It’s still a dangerous offense with how many weapons they have at their disposal. Ainias Smith, Evan Stewart, Noah Thomas, and Le’Veon Moss are just some of the names that Tennessee will have their hands full defending Saturday.
The Vols do have a tougher defense than they had last year, especially on the backend. The secondary is giving up only 5.8 yds/att, 24% less than their opponents average. Run defense is not quite as good as last year’s, but adjusted for sacks is still solid with 4.4 yds/carry (46th nationally).
Final Thoughts
If you’re like me and still don’t see a clear advantage with any of those matchups, here’s some stats that may help — Tennessee has won their last 12 games at Neyland Stadium. Texas A&M has lost 7 straight road games. Jimbo Fisher is 7–14 on the road at A&M, while Heupel at Tennessee is 15–3 at home.
It already helps that the Vols got a week of rest while the Aggies had to play Alabama. Even more though, in a game as close as this one, home field importance is at an all-time high. With a sold out stadium, Checker Neyland in full swing, and Gary Danielson giving Vol fans bulletin board material, the hostile environment can be enough to give Tennessee a big win before a tough road stretch.
Staff Picks
The Model (4–1) — Texas A&M 28, Tennessee 24
Ben Ashworth (4–1) — Tennessee 31, Texas A&M 27
Travis Hamilton (4–1) — Tennessee 38, Texas A&M 27
James Hines (3–2) — Texas A&M 38, Tennessee 35
Jack Pierce Jr. (4–1) — Tennessee 38, Texas A&M 24
Dylan Vogel (3–2) — Tennessee 31, Texas A&M 27
Written by Dylan Vogel, Director of Writing at VSPN
All stats from sports-reference.com and ESPN
