Third Saturday in October Preview
Who? #11 Alabama (6–1, 4–0) vs. #17 Tennessee Volunteers (5–1, 2–1)
Where? Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL (watch on CBS)
When? 3:30 PM ET, October 21, 2023
Series — Alabama leads 58–39–7. Last year Tennessee snapped the longest losing streak in this series for their first win since 2006. Alabama has won 9 straight in Tuscaloosa. They last lost to the Vols there in 2003 in a 5OT thriller.
Spread — Alabama -9.0 (Caesar’s), 76.4% chance to win (FPI)
It’s the Third Saturday in October. Memories of last year’s historic game are still fresh on fans’ minds and will be for a long time. But what was a Top 10 explosive shootout last year is shaping up to be a defensive slugfest between two teams that have already suffered a loss this season.
Both teams have been looking forward to this game. Tennessee doesn’t want to settle for just one win in 15 years; they want to start a streak of their own. For Bama, they’ll of course be looking for revenge after the last second loss in Neyland.
Despite the Tide being outside the Top 10 and already having one loss on the season, they have started conference play undefeated and of course still hold their own destiny in the West. A loss to the Vols wouldn’t knock them out of the driver seat, but it would make the race on that side of the division much more interesting.
For UT, they sit at the second best chance in the East but a very long shot away from Georgia. With only one conference loss however, winning out would mean a tie-breaker win against Georgia for a division title (assuming Florida loses at least one more game). Those chances however would be snuffed out with a loss this Saturday.
So what can we look for in 2023’s edition of the Third Saturday in October? And why is this more than likely looking like a classic defensive battle?
The Vols Pass Rush
Last week I wrote about A&M being the biggest test this pass rush has faced so far this season. It turns out they passed with flying colors, pressuring Max Johnson on 64% of dropbacks (PFF) and recording 11 hurries and 2 sacks.
That was against the 67th ranked offensive line in sacks allowed/game. This Saturday, James Pearce, Tyler Baron, and the rest of the d-line will be facing an offensive line ranked almost dead last in the nation in sacks allowed at 129th.
Sacks/Game
Tennessee — 4.00 (4th)
Alabama (allowed) — 4.43 (129th)
It’s been a massively underperforming unit for the Tide this season and a big reason why their offense has struggled. It’s also very unlikely that they’ll suddenly be able to get it clicking at this point in the season and especially against a pass rush this proven.
Having a reliable pass rush also travels very well. It goes a long way in limiting big plays, creating third-and-longs, and in quieting the home crowd.
Look for the Vols pass rushers to dominate the line of scrimmage and live in the backfield. It could be the sole thing that wins the game for Tennessee.
The Alabama Defense
We’ve talked about the (surprisingly) good UT defense. But what about Bama’s?
Alabama Defense
Points/game — 16.0 (13th)
Passing yards/game — 187.1 (23rd)
Rushing yards/game — 104.4 (19th)
Yards/play — 4.5 (14th)
Sacks/game — 3.71 (5th)
TFL/game — 7.14 (23rd)
As per usual, the Tide have a really good one. It’ll be the second week in a row that the Vols struggling offense will be facing a highly ranked and talented defense.
Most of their strengths are similar to A&M’s, especially looking at pass rush and run defense.
Similarly to the Bama O-line, this just isn’t the kind of game where the Tennessee passing game is all of a sudden going to find it’s footing. Points will be at a huge premium.
To that point, the Vols offense last week did have some quiet success in one area that helped get the win, and will be again have to be leaned on in a hostile environment.
Run First
Last Saturday, Tennessee’s running back trio combined for 203 yards against a defense allowing only 84/game. The run game has been the ignition for Heupel’s offense in the past, but it’s become a proven commodity, as well as the true identity of this year’s team.
They will yet again be going up against a tough opposing unit, but after last week’s performance, I’d take them to have success again. Much like a pass rush, a run game typically has success in traveling well too.
But the Vols aren’t the only ones leaning on the run. Alabama has transformed their offense to a run first one as well, averaging 39 attempts per game.
The difference is they haven’t been near as successful at running it, averaging only 3.81 yds/att and 148.43/game. They’ll be facing an equally effective front seven as their own too: the Vols are allowing 2.98/att and 105/game.
Final Thoughts
Everything in this matchup is pointing to a radically different style game. Last season, we saw Hendon Hooker and Bryce Young battle it out tossing it down the field against week secondaries, scoring a combined 101 points. This Saturday, the total between both teams might not even reach 50.
Both teams have struggling offenses, but mostly they have extremely tough defenses and offensive strengths that don’t translate to high scoring games.
Both teams also have mirroring strengths on each side of the ball. In games like that, I would usually lean toward picking the home team, especially if they’re as talented as Bama is.
But in this case, I surprisingly have a lot of faith in Tennessee being able to overcome those matchups, mostly because of the fact we saw them able to already do it against a tough A&M defense.
Perhaps the biggest takeaway that incorporates all of those stats is this: Tennessee ranks third in the nation in yards/carry differential, beating out opponents by +2.9 yards/carry.
I think that’ll carry the game for the Vols in a defensive slug fest, and make it two in a row against the Tide.
Staff Picks
The Model (4–2) — Tennessee 27, Bama 24
Ben Ashworth (5–1) — Tennessee 20, Bama 17
Travis Hamilton (5–1) — Tennessee 28, Bama 24
James Hines (3–3) — Tennessee 27, Bama 24
Jack Pierce Jr. (5–1) — Tennessee 27, Bama 24
Dylan Vogel (4–2) — Tennessee 24, Bama 21
Written by Dylan Vogel, Director of Writing at VSPN
All stats from sports-reference.com and ESPN
